| ORIGINAL ARTICLE |
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| Year : 2018 | Volume
: 20
| Issue : 2 | Page : 184-188 |
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External validation and newly development of a nomogram to predict overall survival of abiraterone-treated, castration-resistant patients with metastatic prostate cancer
Yun-Jie Yang1, Guo-Wen Lin2, Gao-Xiang Li3, Bo Dai4, Ding-Wei Ye5, Jun-Long Wu6, Hu-Yang Xie7, Yao Zhu8
1 Department of Urology, Fudan University Shanghai Cancer Center, Shanghai 200032, China
Department of Oncology, Shanghai Medical College, Fudan University, Shanghai 200032, China
Correspondence Address:
Bo Dai
Department of Urology, Fudan University Shanghai Cancer Center, Shanghai 200032, China; Department of Oncology, Shanghai Medical College, Fudan University, Shanghai 200032, China
Ding-Wei Ye
Department of Urology, Fudan University Shanghai Cancer Center, Shanghai 200032, China; Department of Oncology, Shanghai Medical College, Fudan University, Shanghai 200032, China
 Source of Support: None, Conflict of Interest: None  | Check |
DOI: 10.4103/aja.aja_39_17
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Abiraterone acetate is approved for the treatment of castration-resistant prostate cancer (CRPC); however, its effects vary. An accurate prediction model to identify patient groups that will benefit from abiraterone treatment is therefore urgently required. The Chi model exhibits a good profile for risk classification, although its utility for the chemotherapy-naive group is unclear. This study aimed to externally validate the Chi model and develop a new nomogram to predict overall survival (OS). We retrospectively analyzed a cohort of 110 patients. Patients were distributed among good-, intermediate-, and poor-risk groups, according to the Chi model. The good-, intermediate-, and poor-risk groups had a sample size of 59 (53.6%), 34 (30.9%), and 17 (15.5%) in our dataset, and a median OS of 48.4, 29.1, and 10.5 months, respectively. The C-index of external validation of Chi model was 0.726. Univariate and multivariate analyses identified low hemoglobin concentrations (<110 g l−1), liver metastasis, and a short time interval from androgen deprivation therapy to abiraterone initiation (<36 months) as predictors of OS. Accordingly, a new nomogram was developed with a C-index equal to 0.757 (95% CI, 0.678–0.836). In conclusion, the Chi model predicted the prognosis of abiraterone-treated, chemotherapy-naive patients with mCRPC, and we developed a new nomogram to predict the overall survival of this group of patients with less parameters. |
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